I’ve just been in a lengthy online debate about Heinrich’s original thoughts about accident causation and the numerous models that have been developed and proposed since. It really has boiled down to a single statement and therefore a caution for everyone who reads this:
“Thou shalt not make unconditional, invariable and/or absolute statements.” – Carsten Busch. (You’re already in my next book!).
I certainly try to avoid the absolute in my writing since it’s obviously debateable and certainly puts me in the position of being unable to prove my statement(s) without a sample size of 100%. I know that I have written statements that, taken out of context, are certainly absolutes (this being one of them).
I’m confident that the solar flare that will one day kill us all requires NO human action…I also believe the hole that is now the Gulf of Mexico required NO intervention for the earth’s population at the time. In my railroading experience we have had mountains move without human interaction resulting in fatalities. It can be argued of course that human actions can and do mitigate the outcomes of such things occurring in nature.
Thanks Carsten Busch for your insight!