Apparently Reducing Lost Time Claims Doesn’t Create The Same Reduction In Fatal Injuries in CANADA

FatalC 1993-2012 1982 - 2012 LTCThere are many “reasons” why the apparent reductions in Lost Time Claims in almost EVERY jurisdiction in Canada is not replicating a similar reduction in Fatalities. Just looking at raw numbers certainly does nothing but make the observer see a correlation in the two separate and very different numbers. Look for yourselves.


A common mistake with amateur “statisticians” is viewing Correlation and attributing a Causation. There is a lot of diligence needed to establish a causation model. Be very careful before making bold statements of causation like have be repeatedly done in these so called “Ratio Studies.” It MAY be true that reducing minor injuries will reduce major injuries of common cause…but these famous and infamous studies didn’t prove that theory. Simple observation of the “ratio” doesn’t prove anything. Real science requires much more diligence and ideally control group data.

Using RAW data in Canada we’re proven that MORE lost time claims results in LESS Fatalities…that makes NO SENSE at all but simple statisticians ignoring the rigor of establishing “causation” demonstration could easily say “SEE WHAT I’VE DISCOVERED! We need to hurt more people in a minor way to save fatal injuries.” This is as ridiculous as saying Heinrich’s observation (and the other studies since) proved ANYTHING!


When in doubt just remember the ice cream! It is our professional responsibility!


2 comments on “Apparently Reducing Lost Time Claims Doesn’t Create The Same Reduction In Fatal Injuries in CANADA

  1. Karin says:

    This was great! I think I might use the ice cream analogy when I’m trying to explain why we always dig deeper than the obvious in root cause analysis! Thank you!

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